Egypt, what next?

Cairo, a lively city that never sleeps, defiant as ever.  

I recently visited Cairo for the first time in seven months. Back in April, it was still under the rule of the Moslem Brotherhood. People then grumbled about economic devastation and political restrictions: these included fuel shortages, power outages, the Brotherhood’s attempts to monopolize power, chaos, restriction on the freedom of speech, and lack of security, among others.  

In November, Egypt’s  former presidents, Hosni Mubarak and Mohammed Morsi were both in jail, the military was in charge, and the Gulf were pumping money into the economy to help the county’s second transition. Society has become extremely polarized and intolerance of the other prevailed.

This time, people were still complaining about the economy and political domination, but there was a general sense of hope that life could gradually improve. There were some who shyly expressed concern about what they called “the culture of fear” that was seeping back into their lives.  

The Islamists, reeling from a devastating defeat after the June 30 ousting of Morsi, seemed to have lost much of their support, not only in Cairo of 18 million, but also in villages and towns throughout the country. Morsi’s supporters, the core of the Moslem Brotherhood, lamenting what they see as the unlawful ousting of their rule, are convinced they can salvage their losses if they resort to the streets. There was sporadic violence in Cairo, and the new regime was pressing forcefully with what they called “the fight against terrorism”.
 

The interim government is driven by determination to restore normalcy, and to ensure there was no turning back.

People were handling the change differently. The media hails the military rule. The notion of eliminating the other side has become widely accepted as the people were fed one narrative. Those who question the logic behind the firmness in dealing with the Islamists are a minority. Army Chief General Abdel-Fattah Al-Sisi is glorified a national hero, and a pro-army song “Tislam al-Ayadi” or “Well-Done” has become the number one hit in Egypt these days, a symbol of the resurgence of nationalism in the country. Another song called “A Message from the Egyptian Children to the Whole World” has school children dressed in military suits saluting the Egyptian flag and singing of their love for their country.  

One can easily be put in the mind frame that the nation was pitted against an enemy. The people rallied around a “person”, not an ideology or a political program. They now seek a military ruler, hoping he would end the chaos and restore the sense of security lost since Mubarak was toppled. Issues such as democracy or human rights are secondary as the country undergoes its second major transition.

A taxi driver told me that democracy and human rights are a “luxury”.
 

“People have other more important things to worry about, such as security and bread. We want to feel safe, we want tourists to return, and we want the economy to improve. I have not slept for two nights driving this taxi to try to come up with enough money that will pay for the cost of renting this taxi. I have not made enough money to buy dinner for my family,” he said.

Others I chatted with in shops or on the streets, even in the well-off neighborhoods of Zamalek and Garden City, echoed the same sentiments.  

What needs to be done to change things for the better? I asked a friend, an academic.

“The people need to get angry again so things can happen. The situation is not expected to get better soon,” my friend said.

The liberals, united in their opposition to Morsi and his movement, no longer face the Islamist threat, but they still have not organized, and still have little grassroots support. Some people are also asking: where have the January 25, 2011 activists who sparked the revolution and were expected to lead, gone? I was told those young people, who called for freedom and social justice, are dispersed. They say some may have left the country, such as Wael Ghuneim, others gave up in frustration at the democracy failure, while others are defamed and accused of acquiring funds from foreign countries.   

“Nobody knows where the country is going,” a journalist colleague told me.
 

Diplomats however, paint a more cautiously positive picture, and believe that with time, security and political conditions will improve. They are however concerned about the apparent hesitancy to implement economic reforms for fear of a popular backlash. The Gulf will not pour money forever, and unless reforms are carried out, Egypt could find itself in a worse situation than it was under the Moslem Brotherhood, several diplomats noted. The other challenge for the new rulers is to hold elections as planned next year, and proceed on the path to democracy, they added. 

Businessmen said foreign and Egyptian investors have not returned after the June 30, 2013 ousting of Morsi, and neither have the tourists. Stable owners at the Pyramids complained they have not seen a foreign tourist in months, and they did not have enough to feed their horses. I felt sorry for Jamil, the horse I rode around the Pyramids. He was skinny, and undernourished.
 

What will you do if the economic situation doesn’t improve after a year or so? I asked an unemployed father of eight sipping tea in a café in one of Cairo’s less privileged neighborhoods.

“We might revolt again against the revolution. I want a job, I want to feed my children, that is all I care about now,” he said.