Egypt, what next?

Cairo, a lively city that never sleeps, defiant as ever.  

I recently visited Cairo for the first time in seven months. Back in April, it was still under the rule of the Moslem Brotherhood. People then grumbled about economic devastation and political restrictions: these included fuel shortages, power outages, the Brotherhood’s attempts to monopolize power, chaos, restriction on the freedom of speech, and lack of security, among others.  

In November, Egypt’s  former presidents, Hosni Mubarak and Mohammed Morsi were both in jail, the military was in charge, and the Gulf were pumping money into the economy to help the county’s second transition. Society has become extremely polarized and intolerance of the other prevailed.

This time, people were still complaining about the economy and political domination, but there was a general sense of hope that life could gradually improve. There were some who shyly expressed concern about what they called “the culture of fear” that was seeping back into their lives.  

The Islamists, reeling from a devastating defeat after the June 30 ousting of Morsi, seemed to have lost much of their support, not only in Cairo of 18 million, but also in villages and towns throughout the country. Morsi’s supporters, the core of the Moslem Brotherhood, lamenting what they see as the unlawful ousting of their rule, are convinced they can salvage their losses if they resort to the streets. There was sporadic violence in Cairo, and the new regime was pressing forcefully with what they called “the fight against terrorism”.
 

The interim government is driven by determination to restore normalcy, and to ensure there was no turning back.

People were handling the change differently. The media hails the military rule. The notion of eliminating the other side has become widely accepted as the people were fed one narrative. Those who question the logic behind the firmness in dealing with the Islamists are a minority. Army Chief General Abdel-Fattah Al-Sisi is glorified a national hero, and a pro-army song “Tislam al-Ayadi” or “Well-Done” has become the number one hit in Egypt these days, a symbol of the resurgence of nationalism in the country. Another song called “A Message from the Egyptian Children to the Whole World” has school children dressed in military suits saluting the Egyptian flag and singing of their love for their country.  

One can easily be put in the mind frame that the nation was pitted against an enemy. The people rallied around a “person”, not an ideology or a political program. They now seek a military ruler, hoping he would end the chaos and restore the sense of security lost since Mubarak was toppled. Issues such as democracy or human rights are secondary as the country undergoes its second major transition.

A taxi driver told me that democracy and human rights are a “luxury”.
 

“People have other more important things to worry about, such as security and bread. We want to feel safe, we want tourists to return, and we want the economy to improve. I have not slept for two nights driving this taxi to try to come up with enough money that will pay for the cost of renting this taxi. I have not made enough money to buy dinner for my family,” he said.

Others I chatted with in shops or on the streets, even in the well-off neighborhoods of Zamalek and Garden City, echoed the same sentiments.  

What needs to be done to change things for the better? I asked a friend, an academic.

“The people need to get angry again so things can happen. The situation is not expected to get better soon,” my friend said.

The liberals, united in their opposition to Morsi and his movement, no longer face the Islamist threat, but they still have not organized, and still have little grassroots support. Some people are also asking: where have the January 25, 2011 activists who sparked the revolution and were expected to lead, gone? I was told those young people, who called for freedom and social justice, are dispersed. They say some may have left the country, such as Wael Ghuneim, others gave up in frustration at the democracy failure, while others are defamed and accused of acquiring funds from foreign countries.   

“Nobody knows where the country is going,” a journalist colleague told me.
 

Diplomats however, paint a more cautiously positive picture, and believe that with time, security and political conditions will improve. They are however concerned about the apparent hesitancy to implement economic reforms for fear of a popular backlash. The Gulf will not pour money forever, and unless reforms are carried out, Egypt could find itself in a worse situation than it was under the Moslem Brotherhood, several diplomats noted. The other challenge for the new rulers is to hold elections as planned next year, and proceed on the path to democracy, they added. 

Businessmen said foreign and Egyptian investors have not returned after the June 30, 2013 ousting of Morsi, and neither have the tourists. Stable owners at the Pyramids complained they have not seen a foreign tourist in months, and they did not have enough to feed their horses. I felt sorry for Jamil, the horse I rode around the Pyramids. He was skinny, and undernourished.
 

What will you do if the economic situation doesn’t improve after a year or so? I asked an unemployed father of eight sipping tea in a café in one of Cairo’s less privileged neighborhoods.

“We might revolt again against the revolution. I want a job, I want to feed my children, that is all I care about now,” he said.   

In Washington, Malala Makes Passionate Plea for Women's Rights

 

 

Tears welled up in the eyes of some women listening to 16-year-old Malala Yousafzai speak to a crowd at the World Bank today. Her audience were deeply touched by her story and courage as she advocated for girl’s education.  

“I’m proud to be a girl because we girls can change the world,” Malala told her mesmerized audience. I felt a chill run through my body at her strong words and her determination to pursue the struggle for the education of girls like her, banned from education.  

One year ago, on October 9, 2012, Malala, the daughter of a school owner, almost lost her life when she was shot in the head by an extremist Talibani as she rode a bus home from school in Pakistan. The Taliban movement in her remote valley in Pakistan had banned education of girls in her region. 

Malala survived, but her face remains partly paralyzed from the point-blank range shooting. Her painful experience, at such a young age, turned her into a brave, global symbol of peaceful activism, and she became the youngest nominee for the Nobel Peace Prize.

 

At an hour-long debate with World Bank President Jim Yong Kim, Malala spoke with passion, boldness, and confidence. She pleaded for collective work to help girls win their right to education.  

Not many of us have to risk our lives to go to school. In several conservative regions in the Middle East where I come from, many girls banned by their culture and families from education, and are married off at a young age, have not walked the path Malala took. They submitted to their fate, and lived a bitterly painful life. Other women however, are defying their cultures to fight for their right to drive, to enter the labour force, and to resist child marriage. It is not easy for women to extract their rights in a society that uses and twists religion to persecute women. Despite the difficulties, women’s movements in many countries in the Middle East and North Africa have made wide strides.  

Today, Masood Ahmed, Director of the IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia Department, spoke to reporters at the IMF about the importance of women’s participation in the labor force in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. He said the female labour force participation was low in the MENA region, actually, the gap between male and female labour force participation there remains the widest in the world, and has grave economic implications. He said policies can make a difference by raising women’s educational attainment and benefits for working parents, reducing gender wage gaps, and supporting women’s independent mobility and equal opportunity in employment.  

“I believe in the power of the wisdom of women. I believe when we walk together, it will be easy to achieve our goals,” Malala, wearing a black head scarf and traditional Pakistani dress, said, surrounded by applause and admiration in Washington, D.C. She is in the United States to promote her book titled “I Am Malala”, written with foreign correspondent Christina Lamb.

 

Malala wanted to be a doctor, but after her shooting, she wants to be a politician.

“If I become a politician, I can help make a tomorrow where there are no more cases of people being shot,” she said.

Malala announced the creation of the Malala Fund to help educate girls, to which immediately Kim donated $200,000 from the World Bank.

"Now millions of girls are raising their voice...but we need to work hard  and to work together," Malala said.

 

  

Downfall of Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood a blow for political Islam

The ousting of  Mohammad Morsi, Egypt's first civilian, democratically elected president today, is  a drastic defeat for political Islam in the traditionally conservative, religious Egypt.  The rebellion of millions of Egyptians against the rule of the Moslem Brotherhood will have wider repercussions in the region that is witnessing unprecedented political and social transitions. The toppling of the Ikhwan, however, does not mean that people in Egypt are demanding the "secular" rule. 

Egypt's military forces removed Morsi, suspended the Constitution, and installed an interim government, placed Morsi and senior Muslim Brotherhood officials under house arrest, and called on all sides to prepare for early presidential elections and a parliamentary vote, thus ending a little over a year of Islamists' rule. The military orchestrated their move carefully, bringing along political and religious figures to avoid calling their intervention a "coup". This was accompanied by a crackdown on Islamists' media outlets and supporters in Alexandria mosques and elsewhere throughout the country. The salafis, who won a majority in last year's parliamentary elections, chose to quickly endorse the military's road map.

The country remains deeply split. The ouster of the powerful Muslim Brotherhood throws the country into the unknown, with a danger of reprisals and confrontation. The question is whether the country will take the course of democracy.

The Moslem Brotherhood, working against time to control the country, had angered the public and isolated other political parties, including the salafis. The people felt the Muslim Brotherhood was  "ikhwanising" state institutions, and had poorly managed a country delving deeper into economic woes and chaos.

"For the thousandth time, we say that President Mosris had made big mistakes, be in in tackling internal Egyptian issues, or Arab affairs, foremost the Palestinian and Syrian files," AbdelBari Atwan, editor of al-Quds Al-Arabi newspaper wrote in his editorial today.

Palestinians in West Bank cities, rejoiced the defeat of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. The "coup" in Gaza in 2007, had led to the division of the future Palestinian state and placed the coastal strip under the Islamist rule of Hamas. Inspired by the popular rebellion launched by the "Tamarrud" group in Egypt, a Palestinian group in Gaza, calling itself "Tamarrud Gaza", issued a statement on facebook to oust Hamas from Gaza. In Tunis, small groups of youth were reorganizing to follow Egypt's suit.

For now, the Egyptians have succeeded in giving themselves another chance at achieving their Arab Spring
The transitions in the Arab world are incomplete, and the future remains uncertain. . Will we see more bloodshed before a "modern, civilian" rule is installed in these countries, or will  the second phase of the "Arab Spring" take a more democratic course?