What are the Palestinians expecting at the U.N. in September?

The Palestinians are confused. The contradicting and often vague comments and statements made Palestinian officials regarding the Palestinian quest for recognition as a state by the United Nations has left the people at a loss.

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas says the move to seek recognition for the State of Palestine at a U.N. meeting planned for September is not a “stunt”, and though negotiations remain his first option, Israel's failure to stop settlements expansion and failure to renew meaningful talks has compelled him to seek the United Nations help to end the conflict peacefully.(http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/17/opinion/17abbas.html?_r=1)

Then Abbas says if he is presented with a peace offer before September, he will back down. (http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4084937,00.html)

Most Palestinian officials I have spoken to, particularly diplomats and officials working hard on seeking recognition at the U.N. insist that with or without new peace offers, the U.N. bid is going ahead.

There is little understanding even among senior Palestinian officials about the technicalities of trying to win that recognition. Contradicting statements are also made about how to go around the imminent U.S. veto, how they will use the U.N. laws and by laws and regulations, intense lobbying, diplomatic battles, etc…to win recognition.

Then there is the question of what happens the day after. What if the Palestinians do not win the recognition after raising the hopes of their people? Some anticipate a “Third Intifada” or uprising, and Israel prepares for the day and places its troops on high alert. Others say they will continue the diplomatic struggle because the “recognition battle” starts by submitting the request to the U.N. Secretary General in July and the process proceeds for a year.

I went to Ramallah, where the Palestinian leadership is based in the West Bank, to try to understand. I met Palestinian diplomats working at the U.N., senior Palestinian officials, journalists and columnists, Abbas advisers and others. I left with more confusion and with the belief that not many people really know what’s brewing in Abbas’ mind.

“It’s a win-win situation,” said one senior Abbas aide.

“We are going to the U.N. regardless of any peace offers we might get because any peace proposal so far has failed to bring about a halt to settlements construction and (Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin) Netanyahu has clearly rejected talks based on the 1967 borders,” he said.

This statement has been echoed by at least three other senior Palestinian officials.

Another source close to Abbas said the Palestinian leader was clear when he repeatedly stressed that negotiations were his first choice and if he was presented before September with a peace offer that leads to an Israeli commitment to stop Jewish settlements building and to restart talks based on U.S. President Barack Obama’s speech (1967 borders with agreed swaps), Abbas would abandon the U.N. bid and renew talks.

Will there be recognition in September? Have the Palestinians secured the recognition of the required 130 states? The normal Palestinian was told “Yes” by some officials, and “No” by others, and “We will get there by September” still by some other officials.

A Palestinian official working at the U.N. said the Palestinians have so far won the recognition of 114 states only, but they will effort to reach the 130 states. However, this is not sufficient for the Palestinians to gain recognition for the State of Palestine as a new member at the U.N.

Nasser Qidwa, the former top Palestinian diplomat at the U.N. was very clear.

“Unfortunately, there will be no recognition of the State of Palestine in September. It is not going to happen,” Qidwa said.

“Why? Because the vote by the Security Council is a requirement and there’s no way going around this,” he added.

Some other officials had told the press how they can go around this by using other mechanisms, including the two thirds of the General Assembly votes and the Uniting for Peace Resolution, and explained other U.N. technical methods that the Palestinian on the street has no understanding of.

The U.S. veto is important. The United States has so far cast 27 vetoes only on resolution in favor of the Palestinians. In his last speech on the Middle East, President Obama has vowed to continue to defend Israel in all public international forums. This will continue, even if the U.S. was isolated internationally by being the only country casting the veto.

So, we know there is no recognition in September. Do the Palestinians have a plan?

Yes, they say.

“This is a process that begins in September. This is not the end,” a senior Palestinian diplomat at the U.N. said.

“We plan to take the state recognition a step forward and we are certain we will win an improvement of our status at the United Nations,” he said.

Will the Palestinians be closer to a state after September?

Yes and No, officials say.

Yes, because the struggle at the U.N. will continue and the international community will work harder to present peace proposals that are based on the 1967 borders. Pressure will increase on Israel to accept Obama’s offer to restart talks on the basis of a Palestinian state on the 1967 borders with agreed swaps. How long can Israel reject and resist. Obama’s speech was significant because he was the first U.S. President to publicly state what has been a long-time private U.S. policy.

Washington believes that a peaceful end to the conflict rests with having a Palestinian state next to Israel on the West Bank, (including East Jerusalem), and Gaza Strip. Swaps would be negotiated between the sides, and thus the issue of the settlements would be resolved once the borders have been agreed. That was the basis on which Obama’s former peace envoy George Mitchell worked for months before he resigned.

Abbas and former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert had also negotiated  based on these principles but they disagreed on the location and percentage of the areas that would be swapped.

All parties are aware that the opportunity for a 2-state solution is closing.


Israeli President Shimon Peres recently told CNN in an interview that failure to strike a deal with the Palestinians urgently threatens the Jewish character of the Israeli state.
"If there will be one state without a clear majority or an un-Jewish majority, that is against everything we are trying to work for," Peres said. (http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4084332,00.html)

 The West Bank is still completely under occupation, settlements are still expanding, Arab East Jerusalem is quickly being taken over by the Israelis, and the Palestinian people are convinced there is no real basis for future talks.

Will the Palestinians wait indefinitely for the U.S. and the international community to convince Israel to return to the talks?  Experience has taught us that the situation would explode any time.

It could be a third uprising, but not necessarily a violent one. The situation could lead to a strong push for a one-state solution, a nightmare scenario for Israel. Refugee leaders in exile are already debating ways to push for that solution and the younger generation in the Palestinian Territories is already losing hope for a 2-state solution.