Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas' announcement he will not run in elections planned for January 24, 2010 has stirred a politicaldebate both within the Palestinian areas, and internationally. Sceptics say he had threatened to resign before and the move was a tactic. But people close to the Palestinian leader insist he is serious this time and the announcement not only reflects his despair, but a shift in strategy and approach.
The moderate 74-year-old Abbas may have reached the conclusion that there needs to be a dramatic shift in strategy in dealing with his internal rivals Hamas who have refused to sign a unity deal to end their violent takeover of Gaza Strip and towards the United States that has failed to convince Israel to pay a price for a final peace witht he Palestinians.
He feels abandoned by Arab states and by the United States. Aides said the Arabs verbally express their support for him but refuse to press Hamas to end the split between Gaza and the West Bank. The U.S. withdrew its demand that Israel totally freeze settlement construction and opted to press the weaker side, the Palestinians, to resume peace talks withour any pre-conditions.
Abbas is not Yasser Arafat, who took up negotiations and supported the fighting during the second Intifada. Abbas' only option has been negotiations alone can achieve statehood.
Abbas' prime minister Salam Fayyad has succeeded in putting an end to armed chaos in the West Bank, and has led a financial reform policy applauded by the international community.
Abbas' options may be limited but may well turn the tables on Israel that wants negotiations to go on forever without results, and the United States and its frantic efforts to restart the negotiating "process" at any cost.
U.S. President Barack Obama had promised to restart peace talks before the end of the year, and if he can't press Israel to give more than a partial freeze, then the Palestinians, as usual, can be leaned on to compromise for the sake of keeping his promise, Palestinians say.
Israelis are asking why is Abbas taking such a maximalist position now, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in power. If Netanyahu's right-wing coalition falls as a result of American pressure to halt settlements, Obama would have to wait for a few months into the next year before a chance to resume negotiations emerges.
The Palestinians have been through this process before and now say gradualism has failed. More voices are being heard calling for the preparation for a unilateral declaration of a state. The move has been delayed since 1999, when under Oslo, the interim peace phases end.
Fayyad, thinking strategicaly, and trying to create new facts on the ground, published in late August a plan that prepares for the creation of the Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza, lands occupied in 1967,by 2011. He is not wasting time to wait for Israel to make moves to end its occupation, which may take forever.
Fayyad is working on building the state, like a businessman, using the bottom-up approach, by building the necessary infrastructure of the state and empowering the Palestinians to peacefully work towards ending occupation.
Fayyad, preoccupied with his mission, has silently engaged the Arabs, the international community, including the United States, and the United Nations, to support and adopt his plan. He is the moderate, peaceful technocrat Israel has grown to fear the most.
Like Arafat, he believes that the Palestinians haev made the painful sacrifice for peace in 1988, when the Palestinians recognised Israel and agreed to set up a state on only 22 percent of historical Palestine.
Palestinian politicians, who once criticised his statehood plan on either factional or personal grounds, seem to be drawn to it unconsciously as it becomes the only doable option.
"Gradualism is no longer feasible. The Palestinians should now work to prepare for the declaration of statehood," said former Palestinian negotiator Hassan Asfour.
Western diplomats said Abbas' anouncement not to seek re-election has prompted the U.S. to consider ways of re-engaging him to make him change his mind. One way is to approve a United Nations Security Council resolution that supports the creation of a Palestinian state.
The details of such a resolution are not yet clear, but if such a resolution was adopted, it would act as a pressure tool on Israel to withdraw from the Palestinian Territories and move towards a meaningful peace process. Or it may be added to the pile of U.N. resolutions that only collect dust over the years. The position of the United States on such a resolution may make a difference.
In the meantime, if Abbas is pressed further to re-enter a futile peace process, his options would be:
- Announce the failure of the two-state solution, and dissolve the Palestinian Authority, a clear admission of the failure of the peace strategy.
- Unilateral declaration of statehood
- To step down and hold elections in January.
The Palestinian leadership has not yet reached the point of declaring the failure of the two-state approach, but it is considering the unilateral declaration of a state more seriously.
Western diplomats say Obama may be thinking of declaring the United States support for a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza if after two years, negotiations fail to end the conflict.
The Palestinains say they can't wait for another two years.
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